Sui Price Prediction: Can SUI Reach $3.80 by the End of 2026?

Sui is one of the largest Layer 1 blockchain projects in the current market cycle. Its object-centric architecture combined with the Move programming language has made it a large interest among both retail traders and institutional players. The big question for most investors as we are entering the second half of 2026 is whether SUI will reach the end-of-year target of $3.80 - an increase of over four times from where SUI currently trades.

Coinminutes presents a full review of the fundamental drivers, market forces and technical indicators which will ultimately determine SUI’s price movement throughout the balance of 2026.

1SUI Price Prediction 2026: Quick Answer

Let's cut straight to the numbers: here's what our analysis suggests for the token's trajectory through the end of 2026.

Our Year-End Target

Our year-end target is based on technical analysis, fundamentals, and market structure. We are projecting a range of $2.20 to $2.80 for year-end, which would be a 3x to 3.8x gain from the current price of about $0.71 (TradingView pricing as of July 9th 2026). 

Since I started tracking Layer 1 blockchain projects in 2017, I've found that using conservative projections with many validation points generally tends to produce better results than making bold forecasts. The above projection incorporates lessons from past experiences such as how Solana rallied in 2021, how AVAX dropped back in 2022, and what the post-recovery trend looked like.

Three Possible Outcomes

Three possible outcomes are listed below. Market conditions rarely have one outcome as most will have multiple catalysts that will determine how prices move.

• A bearish scenario ($1.20-$1.50) would occur if there is a sharp rise in Bitcoin's share of total cryptocurrency market capitalization due to poor macro liquidity, the network continues to lose momentum in DeFi, or it cannot absorb token unlocks into the market through ETF inflows and ecosystem demand. In all cases, increased selling pressure would be present without an increase in demand for the asset.
• A base case scenario ($2.20-$2.80) would occur when DeFi continues to grow and expand within the network, the level of network activity remains at current levels, successful absorption of token unlocks via ETF inflows and ecosystem demand, and overall crypto market conditions improve throughout Q4 2026.
• A bull case ($3.50-$4.20) would require a breakout above significant resistance levels and a large amount of institutional adoption, explosive DeFi TVL growth above $3 billion, and a broader altcoin season. All of these combined could result in the price moving toward or past the $3.80 level.

Three possible price scenarios for SUI at the end of 2026.

The $3.80 Question

The $3.80 goal is possible if the right pieces fall into place. For instance, 21Shares recently launched an institutional on-ramp for investment into SUI via their Nasdaq-traded ETF. There is potential for this fund to draw a consistent flow of net inflows, which would create steady buying demand with each successive token unlock and add further upward momentum to the price.

However, SUI has fallen 86% from its all-time high of $5.35 in January 2025 (as per historical data available on CoinGecko). Therefore, it will require recovering approximately 71% of the lost ground to reach $3.80. It may be somewhat ambitious, but possible. I have watched numerous examples of similar recoveries in cryptocurrency prices: Ethereum rose from $80 to $1400 over a three-year period between 2018 and 2021, and Solana went from $8 to over $250 in 2021. These cycles repeat themselves roughly every couple of years, but the difficulty lies in identifying the timing.

2Current Market Position

As of July 9, 2026, SUI traded at $0.71 with a market capitalization of around $2.9 billion according to TradingView. It's ranked #26 with 24-hour trading volume reaching $287 million. This represents very good liquidity, as this amount accounts for about 9.58% of the market capitalization.

SUI price chart. (Source: TradingView)

There are currently 4.05 billion tokens in circulation as of the date above out of a maximum supply of 10 billion (from the Foundation’s official token dashboard). In other words, there are only about 40% of all possible tokens in circulation so far. How the remainder of these tokens are unlocked over time could be an important factor in SUI’s future price movements.

The key differences in the current state of the market and conditions during SUI’s previous peak at $5.35 can be attributed to two main factors. First, the 21Shares ETF launched on Nasdaq in February 2026 provided investors who were previously unable to participate in the space due to regulatory hurdles a way to gain exposure to the Sui network. Second, the DeFi ecosystem has grown exponentially since its inception. At the time of writing, Sui’s total value locked, or TVL, exceeded $1 billion (based on DefiLlama's data). Several platforms now allow users to earn returns via lending or borrowing, including Turbos Finance, NAVI, and Cetus. Finally, the network has performed well recently. A public test in July 2026 reportedly processed more than 6 million TPS, a record number.

3Reading the Charts

Chart patterns and technical indicators provide crucial insights into short-term and medium-term price potential.

Support and Resistance Zones

According to the weekly trend analysis of TradingView, Sui has been holding a major trendline since it corrected from its 2025 peak. Analyst Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) published an X analysis post in June 2026 stating that holding this support suggests underlying accumulation and positions the asset for a potential 291% recovery if price breaks above the descending channel's upper boundary. The weekly chart shows that Sui price is establishing a base between $0.75 and $0.85 with numerous successful re-tests of this base area giving investors confidence in this range.

Analyst Crypto Patel described SUI’s support hold as a possible accumulation signal. (Source: @CryptoPatel, X)

My trading history shows me that these types of bases are common before large crypto rallies. I've seen similar patterns with Cardano in late 2020 before its 2021 rally, and with Polygon in early 2021. For traders, the challenge is determining whether the increased volume is institutional accumulation or retail capitulation.

• Immediate support: $0.65-$0.67 represents the immediate demand zone based on our technical analysis of TradingView's price data. This golden pocket level represents the deepest retracement zone before invalidating the bullish structure.

• Critical resistance: $0.74-$0.78 represents the first significant supply zone. If SUI price successfully reclaims this zone on increasing volume, then the short-term bullish momentum will be confirmed.

• Major resistance: $1.20-$1.35 represents the mid-range consolidation zone. If price breaks through this level on increasing volume, you may expect to see an influx of algorithmic buying activity and changes to derivative markets.

Key Indicators

On the weekly chart at CoinMarketCap, the RSI is in neutral territory under 50. This provides some opportunity for price to rise as the token is not yet showing overbought conditions. The histogram for the MACD shows that bearish momentum continues to decrease and the signal lines are getting closer together, with a possible bullish crossover at hand.

The current RSI of SUI. (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Currently, the price is trading below both its 200-week and 200-day moving average. These are approximately $1.50 and $1.20 respectively according to TradingView indicators. If it can get back above these two, that would indicate that a new uptrend has begun. Using Fibonacci retracement from the ATH of $5.35 measured to the low, we have a target of $1.90, and a target of $3.00 for a structured recovery.

When the Trend Changes

• Breakout confirmation: A weekly closing price above $0.85 on increasing volume represents initial breakout confirmation. Sustained trading above $1.00 for multiple weeks would confirm the start of a new uptrend.

• Invalidation: If we get a weekly closing price below $0.65, it may be wise to invalidate the bullish thesis and move toward the $0.45-$0.50 zone.

I’ve created my own alert system at those price points, so that if I am going to enter prematurely, at least I'll be entering knowing what could happen to me. In addition to learning the hard way, the 2022 bear market also taught me how much money you can save by simply waiting until the weekly closes.

4What's Driving Growth

Beyond chart patterns, fundamental developments in the ecosystem will ultimately determine whether the blockchain can attract sustained capital inflows.

DeFi Expansion

The DeFi ecosystem crossing $1 billion in TVL (as reported by DefiLlama) serves as an important milestone. Protocols like Turbos Finance, Cetus, NAVI, and BlueFin provide a multi-layered DeFi platform to rival many established blockchain platforms. In addition, the volume of DEX trading has increased month-over-month since April and we have seen that cumulative volume across DeFi platforms is over $500 million per month according to Token Terminal's data in June 2026.

In the last three months, I have personally tried out multiple DeFi protocols and found the user interface and experience to be better than or comparable to my experiences on Solana and Avalanche. The time it takes to confirm transactions is quite rapid and gas prices continue to be minimal regardless of how congested the network becomes. While these are potential benefits, they can also directly contribute to increasing usability which can further help promote adoption.

Stablecoin liquidity remains an area that requires further development. While there is still some work to be done to increase the number of stablecoins available for use, currently both USDC and USDT are available with a total stablecoin market capitalization of roughly $180 million (as reported by the DefiLlama stablecoin tracker). Increasing the stablecoin market capitalization and developing larger liquid pools of stablecoins will be essential factors in gaining support from institutions.

Technology Breakthroughs

A notable breakthrough was demonstrated in July 2026 when Sui reached 6+ million TPS (documented in the Foundation's technical blog). Although the actual peak TPS does not necessarily equate to a higher price per token, it will remove scalability from an argument that can be made against developing projects on the platform. 

The zkLogin is an answer to one of the major impediments to user experience in crypto that has been a problem since its inception. The ability to create a wallet using familiar Web2 login flows reduces the barrier to entry into creating a wallet. Sponsored transactions, which allows developers to pay for gas fees associated with users' transactions, also helps reduce the barrier to entry to use platforms built upon the blockchain.

Sui’s 6+ million TPS benchmark, zkLogin, and sponsored transactions strengthen its developer appeal.

Developer Momentum

Token Terminal's integration with Sui (announced June 2026) will provide institutional-grade analytics for developers in the ecosystem. This is important since professional allocators are unable to deploy capital without standardized metrics. The ability to compare directly to competing chains on metrics such as protocol revenue, fees, user activity etc., will be provided by Token Terminal integration. Our ongoing ecosystem monitoring via a combination of GitHub activity data and reports from the Sui Foundation on developer activity have shown a consistent month-over-month growth trend in developer activity for all of 2026. Major Web2 gaming studios continue to explore the possibility of deploying games on the network.

Standing Out in a Crowded Market

The Sui network competes in a crowded Layer 1 landscape. Solana maintains dominant mindshare as they have most of the DeFi protocols and many institutional-grade products built upon them. Aptos, which uses the same Move-based language family associated with Sui, will be targeting similar applications. Other networks such as Arbitrum and Optimism are Layer 2 solutions atop Ethereum which leverage Ethereum’s already established security and liquidity.

Sui competes in a crowded Layer 1 landscape.

The key differentiating factors include the object-centric model, Move language safety features, and specific UX innovations like zkLogin. However, due to network effects, incumbent players possess a large advantage. Therefore, demonstrating continued growth of users, developer adoption, and investment in the network to carve out meaningful market share is essential.

I have made investments in multiple Layer 1 blockchain networks since 2019. As such, I have gained an understanding that having superior technology does not automatically lead to success. For example, Ethereum still maintains dominance despite being less efficient than others. However, the combination of technical innovation and improving UX gives it a fighting chance in a market that increasingly values both performance and accessibility.

5Making Sense of the Numbers

The $3.80 price point for each token with 4.05 billion in circulation (the number according to the foundation's token metrics) puts the total market cap at just under $15.4 billion. This places Sui in the top 10-15 cryptocurrencies in terms of ranking on CoinMarketCap. 

With an estimated 10 billion max supply, if all were in circulation at $3.80, we would have a fully diluted valuation of nearly $38 billion. A FDV of this magnitude would put the network alongside or even possibly above Layer 1 networks like Cardano. Additionally, it may also compete with Solana, depending on Solana’s market valuation at that time.

At 3.80 per token, Sui's market cap would be placed among major Layer 1 networks.

The difference between the two numbers represents future dilutive risks to the network, as the remaining 5.95 billion tokens are unlocked over time and create pressure for their sale unless the demand for them grows. 

Solana currently has a market cap of roughly $35-40 billion (as per CoinGecko) and TVL of greater than $5 billion (as per DefiLlama). So its market cap to TVL ratio is about 7-8x. If the same ratio were applied to SUI at a market cap of $15.4 billion and TVL of $1 billion, it would be 15x. Therefore, there needs to be either TVL growth or a willingness to accept a larger multiplier to justify the higher valuation expectation.

Understanding the Risks

No investment thesis is complete without examining potential risks that could derail the bullish scenario.

Supply Schedule Concerns

SUI follows a very consistent unlocking schedule with monthly emissions consistently recorded by both Token Unlocks and the Sui Foundation's transparency dashboard. As reported by Token Unlocks's data, the estimated amount for the January 2026 unlock was $62.68 million, equal to approximately 1.14% of total circulating supply. In comparison to cliff unlocks that have caused large price drops, this regular scheduled release allows for better management of token releases.

Sui follows a predictable unlock schedule with routine monthly emissions. (Source: Sui Foundation)

However, the increase in circulating supply will be dramatic as we move forward through the next few years going from approximately 4 billion to over 8 billion. This represents a large percentage increase in circulating supply and thus considered to represent significant dilution. Therefore, if there is to be any increase in price value, it would need to exceed the rate at which the circulating supply increases.

I've followed each unlock schedule religiously since I lost 40% of my investment in an Aptos position later in 2022 when an unlock occurred during a time of poor market conditions. While the gradual token release schedule associated with this asset provides some relief from potential losses due to the rapid release of tokens into circulation, it still is important to track and monitor how well or poorly new supplies are absorbed by the demands of the ecosystem.

Broader Market Headwinds

A stronger price trend for Sui will depend on how well the cryptocurrency market performs in general. If there is a significant increase in the percentage of capital flowing into Bitcoin as it flows out of altcoin investments and investors become more cautious and tight in their money supplies, then even with positive fundamentals, SUI could have a weaker price performance than what would otherwise be expected.

Execution and Regulatory Uncertainty

The regulatory status of Layer 1 tokens is still unclear. The ETF approval may be a positive sign that there will be at least some degree of regulatory acceptance. However, many of the key classification issues remain. Execution risk related to the growth in the development of the ecosystem should also be considered. If one or more of the primary protocols were to fail or significant exploits occurred within the protocol's systems, revisions down of future growth potential may need to occur.

There are several events which would invalidate the bullish thesis, including network outages or system security breaches, competition for market share by developers, the failure of the ETF to generate substantial new inflows of capital into the fund, negative macro environment, or the inability of investors to absorb additional tokens being released from lock-up resulting in continuous selling pressure.

SUI’s bullish case faces risks from regulatory uncertainty, ecosystem execution failures, and more.

6Investment Considerations for 2026

The base case price range ($2.20 to $2.80) is 3-3.8x higher than the current value of $0.71 per coin. The lowest price level considered as support ($0.60 to $0.65) has created an asymmetric investment profile with an approximate 5:1 to 6:1 reward-to-risk ratio using our technical analysis.

This investment opportunity will most likely appeal to investors who believe in the importance of Layer 1 diversification, are aware of the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, and have at least a 12-month investment timeframe. Conservative investors looking to preserve their capital or short term traders seeking profits from trading will likely find this investment unsuitable.

Prior to investing, you should consider developing your position size within a diversified portfolio, utilize an average-in approach, develop review points each quarter to evaluate the progress of the ecosystem, identify your exit points, and understand how your local government views cryptocurrencies as taxable assets. 

I personally allocated approximately 3-5% of my total crypto portfolio for this investment opportunity. My entries were made at staggered prices ranging from $0.70 to $0.85. As previously mentioned, even the highest conviction investments require adherence to established portfolio management principles. No single altcoin should account for greater than 5-7% of your portfolio regardless of its potential merits.

7Coinminutes' Take

The $3.80 year-end goal for SUI is quite a stretch, but it can be accomplished if catalysts align. Sui’s ability to provide institutional access via the 21Shares ETF has the potential to significantly alter the demand dynamics of the token as well as remove scalability concerns that were present in previous blockchain generations. In spite of this, Coinminutes recognizes that the ongoing token unlocks will place continuous upward pressure on total supply, and there are currently many competitors from existing Layer 1 blockchains such as Solana.

For investors comfortable with volatility and convinced by Sui's technical differentiation, the current levels of $0.71 may be your best chance to get into SUI.

Disclaimer: This market analysis is for informational purposes only, NOT financial advice. Cryptocurrency is a high-risk game. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose, and always do your own research (DYOR)