Aster Price Prediction: Catching the L1 Wave or Risk of Breaking Support in February 2026?

By February 2026, sharp swings dominate digital currency markets alongside steep losses. Within such widespread caution, Aster (ASTER) reaches a pivotal point - its structure and performance under close scrutiny. Though confidence remains low across sectors, the asset faces defining conditions that shape its next phase.

Even as overall market conditions tighten, Aster moves forward with strict operational measures. Because stability matters most right now, safeguards take priority across systems. When timing shifts later in the period, deeper changes will follow without delay.

Fundamental Analysis: The Engines of Value and Market Headwinds

The Stage 6 Catalyst: Deflationary Buyback Pressure

February 4, 2026, saw Aster launch its Stage 6 Buyback system without prior delay. A notable change now shapes its economic model, responding to ongoing market softness. Rather than spreading resources thin, the framework directs as much as 80% of each day's collected fees into buying back ASTER tokens live from exchanges. This approach alters capital flow, placing emphasis on active recovery instead of passive accumulation.

Aster officially activated its Stage 6 Buyback mechanism on February 4, 2026 (Source: X).

Split between 2 main roles: 40% fuels automated daily buybacks that reduce supply, while 40% stands as safeguard against wild market swings. Such mechanism transforms ASTER into a revenue-backed deflationary asset, supported by real returns. Within decentralized finance, a steady demand forms - unrelated to speculation - emerging naturally from structure itself. Ends where most systems begin anew.

With rising trade activity on the platform, buybacks grow at the same pace, steadily removing tokens from circulation. This mechanism acts like an artificial support level for pricing, taking in coins sold off quickly by individual sellers during downturns.

The L1 Horizon: Aster Chain and Native Staking

Centered around a significant overhaul of core systems, early 2026 marks the planned debut of Aster Chain - a Layer 1 network emphasizing data confidentiality - set for release near the close of March. Following that, functionality enabling direct $ASTER token participation in validation rolls out during spring months. Governance integrated into the protocol appears shortly afterward, unfolding gradually across April and May.

Aster transitions toward a standalone blockchain, addressing constraints in transaction speed and cost efficiency. With infrastructure tailored for rapid trade execution, performance adapts accordingly. Shifting from an "App Token" to a "Native L1 Coin" alters perceived asset value. This structural evolution influences market valuation dynamics over time.

Once moved, protocols often see strong gains in value when operating on independent blockchains. With its shift to Layer 1 status, ASTER takes on the role of both transaction fee currency and foundational asset across the system. Market activity ahead of release dates - often called "rumor buying" - tends to push prices upward, particularly during periods like late February. This pattern could support renewed growth before official deployment.

The Competitive Landscape: Market Sentiment and Rivalry

Even so, 2 pressures weigh on Aster: fierce competition and a deteriorating macro environment. By early 2026, Hyperliquid captured 33% of the market, shifting the balance. At the same time, overall valuations dropped sharply - more than 20% within a month - as sentiment cooled fast.

When the Fear & Greed Index is at 11, attention shifts to Bitcoin instead of speculative digital assets. Still, "Extreme Fear" has previously marked a generational accumulation zone. Past cycles show that once readings climb into the lower 20s, selling pressure tends to fade. During such phases, experienced investors gradually increase exposure, focusing on projects including ASTER.

The "Extreme Fear" often signals a generational accumulation zone (Source: CoinMarketCap).

Technical Analysis: Deciphering Market Structure and Momentum

Fibonacci Support and the "Last Stand"

Testing now at the 0.618 Fibonacci mark, between $0.52 and $0.54, ASTER shows signs of resilience. This zone tends to act as last support before broader downward shifts take hold. Price movement clings closely here, hinting that the Stage 6 buyback may be countering selling pressure. Failure to maintain above $0.48 on closing basis would undermine upward expectations. So long as $0.52 stays intact, chances for a sharp rebound still appear strong.

Aster price chart (Source: CoinMarketCap).

RSI: Class A Bullish Divergence

A shift begins to show on the daily timeframe, where falling prices contrast with strengthening signals. Though ASTER reached a new low near $0.55 by February 4th, its RSI - now reading 32 - holds above prior lows. Such separation suggests weakening sell-side pressure even amid declining values. In earlier instances, once RSI slipped into oversold levels while diverging like this, upward movement between 20% and 40% emerged after weak holders exit.

Bollinger Bands: The Volatility Squeeze

With Bollinger Bands tightening sharply, volatility has dropped to uncommon levels. A period like this tends to precede strong directional moves, historically speaking. Since RSI shows oversold conditions along with supportive buyback activity, upward momentum appears more probable. Reclaiming the midpoint at $0.60 could open room for advance - targeting the upper boundary around $0.78 becomes feasible under such pressure. Movement past that central band may act as confirmation of shift.

Volume Profile and Moving Averages

Exactly at $0.55 sits the Point of Control (POC), marking the most intense area of buying activity. From $0.62 to $0.68, volume drops sharply - this stretch tends to see swift price movement, given few traders are positioned above. Although located just ahead, EMA 20 at $0.62 acts as a barrier worth watching closely. Only once $0.62 begins holding as floor does any real shift emerge in near-term direction.

Price Prediction: Market Trajectories for Late February 2026

The path of ASTER up to February 28, 2026, hinges on tension: strong deflation measures against a shaky broader economy. Shown next are three separate outcomes, drawn from "Stage 6" buyback figures along with movement patterns in pricing. Despite shifts in volume, each route reflects varying weight given to supply reduction versus external economic stress.

Base Case: Supply Absorption (60% Probability)

Target: $0.68 to $0.75

With Stage 6 Buyback mechanism active - fees at 80% - liquidity on exchanges gradually vanishes. As market tension eases, persistent buying pressure from the protocol, exceeding $80,000 per day, begins lifting value. Once price sustains above EMA 20 at $0.62, movement gains momentum. The gap left by earlier low-volume trading tends to close under such conditions. Resistance near $0.72 becomes reachable, marking roughly 30% higher than present figures.

Bullish Case: L1 Hype & Short Squeeze (20% Probability)

Target: $0.85 to $0.95

Momentum builds on anticipation, not confirmation. Should details emerge about Aster Chain Testnet activation or staking incentives, interest may rise abruptly. Given reduced availability from ongoing token withdrawals, upward movement past the tightened volatility range might force covering of short positions. That pressure could push price toward $0.82 - aligned with a key retracement - and onward near $0.95, where long-term average trading sits. Movement ends there unless new data appears.

Bearish Case: Macro Capitulation (20% Probability)

Target: $0.40 – $0.48

Should Bitcoin fall beneath $50,000, ASTER could undergo final selling pressure regardless of core strengths. Once the $0.48 threshold fails, automated exits may accelerate declines. Movement toward the 0.886 Fibonacci level ($0.40) becomes likely under such conditions. Lower valuation levels increase buyback efficiency, yet rebound timing shifts further into until Q2 2026. This scenario extends consolidation beyond earlier projections, even with supportive measures in place.

CoinMinutes’ Take

A shift in market perception may be underway. Despite steady income fueling share reductions, valuation remains low. This gap hints at potential outperformance. One factor stands clear: earnings support exists without reflected pricing. Opportunity emerges where fundamentals diverge from current worth. Price levels do not mirror internal financial actions. A quiet buildup could already be taking place beneath surface metrics.

Should the price fall between $0.48 and $0.55, losses may occur; however, chances for growth toward $0.85 remain stronger due to share repurchases alongside rising interest in Layer 1 platforms. Waiting through early February, especially the opening 2 weeks, could lead to notable gains before March begins.

Disclaimer: This market analysis is for informational purposes only, NOT financial advice. Cryptocurrency is a high-risk game. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose, and always do your own research (DYOR).