XRP December 2025: Dramatic Reversal Sets Stage for $3 Target?

Last​‍​‌‍​‍‌ week, if you were so scared that you sold off your XRP when the price was at $1.83, then I have to tell you some not so nice news - you just fell for 2025's most obvious "bear trap" without realizing it.

At the moment, XRP is holding strong at around $2.18. The visual representations of the price changes indicate a very quick recovery from the decrease. Those who wanted to sell their positions tried to depress the prices, but buyers came in with full force as if it was a Black Friday sale.

XRP price chart. (Source: TradingView)

December is bringing a completely different atmosphere. That terrible feeling which everyone had? It is gone now. What we are seeing now is only the happiness of people as they prepare for the year-end ​‍​‌‍​‍‌rush.

Data​‍​‌‍​‍‌ Tells the Story

Why are we feeling good about December? The numbers don't lie:

Trading Volume's Actually Going Up: So here's the crazy part—while XRP went up from $2.05 to $2.32 over the last few days, trading volume didn't drop. It increased. This is what it tells us that the smart money (big institutional players) was buying the dip, not a handful of retail investors buying in panic.

Market Cap Position: XRP is in the top 4. When a coin gets this big, those wild pump-and-dump schemes become almost impossible. What we get instead is more stable, trend-based growth.

XRP currently sits at top 4 in terms of market cap. (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Price Structure: Simply put from the charts, XRP just established what traders refer to as a "Higher Low" at that $2.05 point. You can liken it to setting a stronger base for the next upward ​‍​‌‍​‍‌move.

Technically​‍​‌‍​‍‌ the Market Is Ready for a Rally

How about going straight to the core of the market—the Relative Strength Index (RSI)? On the daily chart, XRP's RSI is currently at 62, which is beyond doubt a very positive indicator. The reason for this lies in the fact that a value of over 70 denotes an "overheated" market ready to crash, while a value below 30 stands for an "overcooled" market. In fact, at 62 buyers are still in a very commanding position, but the engine is not overloaded; there is plenty of space for the market to heat up even more without the return of the correction. This is what recognizes this as the upswing of a real and sustainable trend, not a sudden "pump" phenomenon.

Moreover, let's have a look at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) that is an impeccable instrument for trend revelation. The green signal line just moved across the red one upward at the zero point marking the intersection. This is what technical analysts prefer calling "trend restart", meaning that the trend is unfolding in the same direction but with a greater speed like shifting a gear to accelerate after slowing down at the $2.05 curve. The change from red to green of the Histogram bars parallel to this moment is also indicative of the fact that the return of the buying force is energetic and even more powerful than before.

Besides, what should not be overlooked is the role that Bollinger Bands play along with other technical indicators in predicting changes in the trend; at this moment, the bands are extending on either side of the daily chart, depicting impending significant price movement. XRP's price is at the moment closest to the band around $2.35. The fact that the price is repeatedly testing the upper band without sizable rejection clearly indicates that at this point there is almost no selling pressure. Should prices continue to push this band out further, XRP will be taking a "band walk"—a situation that is at times referred to during strong bull ​‍​‌‍​‍‌cycles.

On-Chain​‍​‌‍​‍‌ Data Echoes Institutional Interest

A price-only story isn't enough—we have to look at the on-chain data of the "big players" wallets. The Funding Rate on derivatives exchanges is positive, though very low (around 0.01%-0.02%). This is a perfect signal. Overly high Funding Rates would mean that there is an excessively leveraged buying (longs) situation and usually, the market drops to get rid of these positions. The low current Funding Rate indicates that this rally is coming from real spot buying rather than some kind of fake leverage.

The market goes up when people don't believe it, and that's usually when it goes up the most.

More than 11 significant asset management companies have submitted applications for XRP ETF, and Bloomberg analysts are estimating a 95% chance of approval by the end of the year. In fact, the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF had already received the green light in July. Institutional investors have bought more than 310 million XRP tokens, worth $1 billion, which is a clear indication of their trust in a positive regulatory outcome for ​‍​‌‍​‍‌XRP.

Moreover, the analysis of whale wallet changes (wallets holding more than 10 million XRP) reveals incredible buying. When the price briefly dropped to $2.05 last week, these wallets didn't go out and sell their coins. On the contrary, they amassed nearly 40 million XRP in just 3 days. Such insider money moves are the loudest cheerleaders of higher December price ​‍​‌‍​‍‌targets.

Two​‍​‌‍​‍‌ Scenarios for Year's End

Based on our current observations, December might go either way:

Scenario 1: Year-End Super Cycle (Most Likely)

This would be the case if XRP were to remain above $2.20 and break the $2.60 resistance level by a considerable volume.

It would be something like this: In the first week of December, XRP would test $2.60 again. Then boom—it would break out massively and run straight to $3.00-$3.20 before the new year. If you bought at a lower price, then this would be your perfect opportunity to take some profits off the table.

Scenario 2: Sideways Shuffle (Less Likely)

This is the scenario in which profit-taking at year-end would leave XRP under $2.60.

The price would be going up and down between $2.10 and $2.50 without giving traders much hope of success. The big players would use this moment to weed out the impatient investors before they would eventually take things higher in early 2026.

Don't forget that there is talk about changes in the management of the SEC coming in January, which could be a ​‍​‌‍​‍‌catalyst.

CoinMinutes’ Take

Right now, XRP is really holding its ground and making a strong comeback. The fall to $2.05 that happened last week is increasingly being seen as a mere temporary base.

$2.60 is the figure that matters for December.

In case you witness the rates going far beyond that point, XRP would be the last to slow down if there were late passengers waiting to get on the train, so just be brave and daring.

Cheers to December being as crazy as it ​‍​‌‍​‍‌can!

Disclaimer: This market analysis is for informational purposes only, NOT financial advice. Cryptocurrency is a high-risk game. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose, and always do your own research (DYOR).