Ethereum January 2026: Can ETH Break $4,000 After Fusaka?

Optimism marks the start of 2026 for those invested in Ethereum. With the Fusaka update going live in December 2025, change has taken root across the network. Instead of claims alone, real shifts are underway - efforts intensify to uphold Ethereum's position amid rising pressure from rivals such as Solana.

Three main factors could influence how ETH trades through late January 2026. These elements may steer movement more than others during this stretch. One follows regulatory updates, another tracks investor positioning, while the third ties to broader market trends.

The "Tsunami Effect" from the Fusaka Upgrade

On December 3, 2025, the Fusaka update arrived - bringing PeerDAS into play while expanding Blob space twofold to either 14 or 21 per block. Transformation of the Layer 2 environment followed closely thereafter.

Transaction costs across Layer 2 platforms including Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base show notable decreases. Approaching twelve thousand transactions per second, system capacity expands steadily.

When big changes happen, prices often take weeks to adjust. Past shifts suggest one to two months are needed before markets absorb updates like The Merge. By early 2026, rising usage of layer-two networks may start limiting available ETH. Demand could tighten as more people hold ether for transaction costs and security deposits. This period might mark the point where pressure builds most clearly.

The "Concrete Wall" of Whales and Institutions

Noteworthy trust among large participants emerges, according to Glassnode figures:

Since late 2024, those with more than 10,000 ETH show a 9.3% rise in holdings - indicating steady buildup. The average entry point for these major holders sits at $3,130, forming a resilient floor driven by market perception.

By early 2026, assets tied to ETH exchange-traded products totaled $18.17 billion - marking a shift from mere speculation toward core portfolio inclusion among large financial institutions. Since then, steady buying pressure through regulated funds has helped dampen sharp price swings while fostering gradual appreciation over time.

ETH price chart. (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Technical Indicators & 2026 Roadmap

A possible Bull Flag formation appears in price models according to CoinMarketCap's weekly chart analysis. While patterns emerge, they do not guarantee future movement. Observation of structure suggests continuity may be shaping up. Time will clarify whether momentum supports the setup. Signals like these often dissolve without follow-through.

Vitalik Buterin advances a streamlined version of Ethereum, drawing sustained interest from investors. Exploration into Parallel EVM unfolds under steady scrutiny. Progress emerges through iterative testing rather than grand announcements. Attention remains fixed on structural refinements. Efficiency gains surface quietly amid ongoing development cycles.

Risks: Facing strong rivalry from Solana - capable of handling 1.2 million transactions per second - creates ongoing challenges. Still, Ethereum holds distinct value by serving as the foundational network for decentralized finance applications.

End of January 2026 Price Prediction

From these figures, one possibility emerges at CoinMinutes. Another takes shape beside it:

Scenario 1: Breakout (65% probability)

Favorable trends persist through sustained ETF inflows, while activity on Layer 2 networks expands after Fusaka's launch. Movement in capital remains aligned with market uptake, though underlying momentum stems from infrastructure shifts. Asset allocation reflects confidence, even as usage patterns evolve across platforms. Growth appears steady, driven by structural improvements rather than isolated events.

By late January 2026, Ethereum may surpass $3,600, moving toward $4,000–$4,200. Should this occur, downward bets tied to skepticism around the upgrade could be forced out. Pressure from rising prices might trigger rapid unwinding of those positions. Movement beyond key resistance often shifts market dynamics unexpectedly.

Scenario 2: Consolidation (35% probability)

Should delays occur in deploying Verkle Trees, regulatory setbacks concerning staking might follow. Implementation hiccups could precede unfavorable policy shifts. If progress stalls here, scrutiny there may intensify. Technical slowdowns often coincide with tighter oversight. When upgrades lag, authorities tend to respond. Progress gaps invite examination. A holdup in one area sometimes triggers reactions elsewhere.

Expect ETH to move within a tight band, held above by $3,500 and below by the whale-supported floor near $3,100. Such stability may signal investor reshuffling rather than expansion. Growth could resume more firmly starting mid-2026. Movement now reflects preparation, not acceleration.

CoinMinutes' Take

In early 2026, Ethereum demonstrated tangible worth after the Fusaka enhancement. Backed by ETFs while major holders increase positions near $3,130, upward momentum continues without interruption. Though market sentiment shifts often, confidence among large investors holds steady through volatility.

Possibility of progress exists for those keeping ETH. Should the value stay higher than $3,130, movement toward $4,000 becomes feasible. Stability at this point matters most right now.

Disclaimer: This market analysis is for informational purposes only, NOT financial advice. Cryptocurrency is a high-risk game. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose, and always do your own research (DYOR).