Decentralized prediction platform Polymarket reached $100 million in monthly trading volume in June as users increased their bets on the outcome of the United States presidential election.
As of now, there are $203.3 million in bets on the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, which includes individual “Yes” or “No” bets across 17 prediction markets.
Former president Donald Trump is the current favorite with 62% odds of winning, amounting to $24.7 million in bets for and against him.
Current president Joe Biden is second with $23.9 million in bets on his re-election. His odds have dropped from 34% to 21% following his poor performance in the Presidential Debate on June 28.
Meanwhile, the odds for Democrats Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama have surged as some political commentators suggest Biden might withdraw from the race.
Biden’s debate performance has also increased “Yes” bets in the “Biden drops out of presidential race” and “Biden drops out by July 4” markets to 43% and 9%, respectively, with over $10 million wagered.
There are also significant bets on American rapper Kanye West and crypto skeptic Elizabeth Warren winning the presidency, though their chances remain below 1%.
Polymarket, running on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon, saw $109.9 million in trading volume in June, crossing the $100 million mark for the first time, according to Dune Analytics.
Trading volumes from January to May ranged between $38.9 million and $63 million, marking a 620% increase from the previous five months (August-December 2023).
The total value locked in Polymarket is now $40.2 million, up nearly 69% over the last 30 days, according to Token Terminal data.
Polymarket, launched in June 2020, recently raised $70 million, backed by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund.
Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, said decentralized prediction markets provide a clear view of the truth by cutting through misleading narratives. “Prediction markets are freedom-preserving technology that move societies forward,” Cohler said in a June 30 X post.
