This Friday, September 27, Bitcoin will experience its second-largest option expiry of 2024, with $8.1 billion worth of options set to expire. According to Laevistas.ch, the majority of these options are call options, valued at $4.9 billion, which is 53% higher than put options, reflecting the typical optimism among crypto traders.
However, many of these call options, particularly those placed at $82,000 and above, are unlikely to be profitable as expiry looms in just two days. Notably, 55% of the call options, totaling $2.22 billion, are set at a strike price of $70,000 or higher. On the other hand, 69% of the put options were placed at $56,000 or below, worth about $2.2 billion.
Four key scenarios are projected based on Bitcoin’s closing price on September 27:
- $57,000 – $58,000: Sellers gain $250 million
- $58,000 – $60,000: Buyers and sellers break even
- $60,000 – $62,000: Buyers profit $550 million
- $62,000 – $64,000: Buyers secure a $1 billion profit
Sellers are under significant pressure to push BTC below $60,000 to avoid massive profits for buyers. However, macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate cuts and China’s launch of a large economic stimulus package favor the buyers.
As of now (September 26, 2024), BTC is trading around $63,400, showing little movement in the past 24 hours. While Bitcoin remains stable, several altcoins are surging, including TAO (up 53%), SEI (up 38.5%), and WLD (up 31%) in the last 7 days. These altcoins have gained momentum following China’s economic stimulus announcement, with experts suggesting further economic easing could be on the horizon.
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