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Biden’s Reelection Odds Hit New Low on Polymarket

Former U.S. President Donald Trump is still in the lead at odds at 61%, while U.S. Vice President and Democrat Kamala Harris is second with 19% odds.
presidential election winner 2024

On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the betting odds for President Joe Biden’s victory in the November 2024 election have plummeted to an all-time low of 9%. Concerns are growing among the public that Biden may need to be fit enough to secure a second term.

Presently, support for President Biden in the upcoming election has risen from 9% to 13%. However, former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump remains in the lead, with 61% of people believing he will win.

Related news: Polymarket Reaches $100M Monthly Volume Amid Heated Presidential Race

presidential election winner 2024
Odds of predicting the next US President, Polymarket screenshot on July 6, 2024

Notably, Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a sudden surge in her betting odds on Polymarket, jumping from 1% to 17% since June 28. She is now a leading Democratic candidate to potentially replace Biden if he decides to withdraw from the race. In the Polymarket prediction for the “2024 Democratic Nominee,” Harris is leading with over 44% support.

Related news: Kamala Harris Memecoin Skyrockets 250% as Pressure Mounts on Biden to Step Down

Prediction rate of Ms. Kamala Harris being elected in the past 1 month, Polymarket screenshot on July 6, 2024
Prediction rate of Ms. Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic Party candidate, Polymarket screenshot on July 6, 2024

Another prediction on Polymarket shows that 66% of people believe Biden will withdraw before the U.S. election on November 4. This number skyrocketed from 20% to 80% following the conclusion of the first presidential debate.

Prediction rate of Mr. Biden withdrawing from the election race, Polymarket screenshot on July 6, 2024

President Biden’s underwhelming performance in the 2024 presidential debate may have been the “last straw” that led to the sharp decline in his election odds. Some Democrats have even begun calling for Biden to withdraw from the race.

According to CNN, Biden appears to be facing health issues, as he announced during a July 3 meeting that he would stop scheduling events after 8 PM to get more sleep. This comment disappointed many governors in the room, leading to growing discontent with the President.

Despite the increasing pressure, Biden emphasized in his Independence Day speech on July 4 that he has no intention of resigning. He firmly stated, “I’m not going anywhere.”

Former President Trump and President Biden are expected to face off again in the final presidential debate on September 10. The likelihood of Biden withdrawing before the election is becoming more apparent, with increasing signs that he may lack the physical stamina and necessary support. The Democratic Party appears to be preparing for the possibility of a new candidate as Kamala Harris continues to gain support from many Democratic voters.

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