On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the betting odds for President Joe Biden’s victory in the November 2024 election have plummeted to an all-time low of 9%. Concerns are growing among the public that Biden may need to be fit enough to secure a second term.
Biden’s election odds are down to single digits. pic.twitter.com/Uo9tIW7nXy
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) July 4, 2024
Presently, support for President Biden in the upcoming election has risen from 9% to 13%. However, former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump remains in the lead, with 61% of people believing he will win.
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Notably, Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a sudden surge in her betting odds on Polymarket, jumping from 1% to 17% since June 28. She is now a leading Democratic candidate to potentially replace Biden if he decides to withdraw from the race. In the Polymarket prediction for the “2024 Democratic Nominee,” Harris is leading with over 44% support.
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Another prediction on Polymarket shows that 66% of people believe Biden will withdraw before the U.S. election on November 4. This number skyrocketed from 20% to 80% following the conclusion of the first presidential debate.
President Biden’s underwhelming performance in the 2024 presidential debate may have been the “last straw” that led to the sharp decline in his election odds. Some Democrats have even begun calling for Biden to withdraw from the race.
According to CNN, Biden appears to be facing health issues, as he announced during a July 3 meeting that he would stop scheduling events after 8 PM to get more sleep. This comment disappointed many governors in the room, leading to growing discontent with the President.
Despite the increasing pressure, Biden emphasized in his Independence Day speech on July 4 that he has no intention of resigning. He firmly stated, “I’m not going anywhere.”
President Biden at the 4th of July celebration:
“I’m not going anywhere…” pic.twitter.com/lMAJ5og7p4
— Yashar Ali ???? (@yashar) July 4, 2024