On October 22, Park made a prediction regarding Bitcoin’s price based on its volatility and betting odds from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. In his post on platform X, he explained that he utilized a merger arbitrage probability model to assess Bitcoin’s price movement. Park concluded that a Trump victory could trigger a significant price rally for the cryptocurrency, projecting that Bitcoin could reach around $92,000.
This prediction aligns with the views of several industry experts. Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman believes that Bitcoin could surpass the $100,000 mark if Trump is elected, suggesting that Trump’s policies could stimulate strong growth across the entire cryptocurrency market, making the election a pivotal factor for its future.
Analysts from AllianceBernstein have also identified Bitcoin as “a bet on Trump,” indicating that the outcome of the November election will determine whether Bitcoin stabilizes around $30,000 or surges to $90,000.
However, not everyone is optimistic about the potential impact of a Trump victory on the crypto market. Billionaire Mark Cuban, a supporter of Kamala Harris, warned that while the market may experience a short-term boom, it could quickly reverse. He expressed concerns that Trump’s economic policies, particularly his stance on import tariffs, could lead to inflation and negatively affect Bitcoin prices in the long run.
Recent market data has shown significant volatility in Bitcoin prices as the election approaches. Over the past week, Bitcoin surged from $62,900 on October 14 to $69,000 on October 24, before correcting to $67,200 due to outflows of $79.1 million from Bitcoin ETFs, ending a streak of seven consecutive days of gains.
Currently, Polymarket betting odds favor Trump, with 59.7% of bets backing him compared to 40.3% for Kamala Harris. Trump’s crypto-friendly policies, including his promise to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world” and his pledge to support Bitcoin miners, are seen as key factors boosting confidence in the market if he is re-elected.
In contrast, Kamala Harris has yet to clarify her position on cryptocurrencies, other than announcing plans to establish a regulatory framework for the sector. The crypto market’s trajectory in the coming months will largely depend on political developments, particularly the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November.
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